World Cup Best Bets Today: Top Picks for France and Mexico

The World Cup Round of 32 rolls on with three more matches on Tuesday.

Ivory Coast play their first knockout-round clash in their nation’s history against a Norway side that hasn’t been there since 1998. France will be heavily favored in their clash with fellow European foes Sweden. And Mexico continues their home World Cup odyssey when Ecuador makes the trek to the Estadio Azteca.

Here are our best bets of the day.

France vs. Sweden: Two-way handicap

France have dismantled everyone in their path by multiple goals. Sweden were dealt an embarrassing 5-1 defeat by a Netherlands side that crashed out of the tournament.

Some might look at this match and ask why the teams even bother taking the field. Others would look at it as a perfect opportunity to buy low on a European opponent that shouldn’t be intimidated by France’s considerable bona-fides.

As good as France have been, their expected-goal difference is only the 10th best in the tournament. And those numbers are also slightly inflated by the decision to field their first team against a Norway squad that rotated in its final group match.

Sweden certainly haven’t been exceptional. But on paper, it’s a stronger roster than the results so far, and the loss to the Dutch in particular wasn’t nearly as lopsided as the score would indicate.

This is a good place to back a regression and play a spread wager backing Sweden +1.5 goals at +110 odds and an implied probability. If the game ends in anything other than a multi-goal French victory, your bet cashes.

Pick: Sweden +1.5 goals (+110, BetRivers)

Mexico v Ecuador: Result and both teams to score

After failing to score in two matches, Ecuador supposedly silenced critics by rallying to what looked like an impressive 2-1 win over a Germany side that had already sealed its group.

After Monday’s German flameout, it’s fair to reassess whether Ecuador’s triumph was all that noteworthy.

They’ll be pitted against a Mexican side that has been exceptional in front of their home support. And the money line reflects that oddsmakers believe this match would be even if played at a neutral venue. On the evidence of Ecuador’s performances against Ivory Coast and Curacao, it’s hard to believe these teams are even at the moment.

Additionally, Mexico’s defensive metrics are among the best in the tournament. Admittedly, they haven’t come against the strongest opposition. But an Ecuador side still starting a 36-year-old Enner Valencia at striker is not all that strong in attack either.

So the smart play is to back Mexico to win in a shutout at +210 odds and an implied 32.3% probability. It’s how they’ve won all three of their matches so far, and Ecuador isn’t enough of a step up in class to be worth such a low price.

Pick: Mexico win to nil (+210, Fanatics)